The Delphi Technique is a structured communication method that is used for gathering expert opinion and making accurate predictions. It was first developed in the 1950s by Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer and has been regularly used in a variety of fields since then, including healthcare, business, and technology. This technique is often used when it is difficult to gather accurate information from other sources, and when a consensus opinion is needed for decision-making.

What is the Delphi Technique?

The Delphi Technique is a structured communication process that involves the participation of a panel of experts. These experts provide their opinion or an opinion-based forecast through a series of questionnaires. The results are then collected and analyzed so that a consensus opinion or prediction can be obtained. This technique is particularly useful when it is necessary to gather expert opinion over a period of time, when the participants are geographically dispersed, or when it is necessary to maintain anonymity.

Stages of the Delphi Technique

The Delphi Technique consists of several stages, each of which play an important role in obtaining an accurate decision. The stages are: Estimate, Talk, and Estimate. During the Estimate stage, the panel of experts provides their initial opinion. This opinion is then discussed in the Talk stage, where experts may provide new insights or refine their opinion. The process is then repeated in the Estimate stage, where the opinions are collected and analyzed. The process is repeated until a consensus is reached or a prediction is made.

Advantages of the Delphi Technique

The Delphi Technique provides many advantages for researchers. These include: gaining knowledge from experts; receiving honest answers; reaching a consensus opinion; enabling far-reaching opinions and predictions; and reducing bias. Additionally, the technique is relatively inexpensive and easy to implement, making it cost-effective for a variety of research projects.

Conclusion

The Delphi Technique is an effective tool for obtaining reliable consensus opinion or predictions. It is particularly useful in situations where it is difficult to obtain accurate information from other sources, and when it is necessary to maintain anonymity. Additionally, its relatively low cost and ease of use make it a cost-effective solution for a variety of research projects.